Форсайт-портал СФУ (Сибирский федеральный университет)

Practices of Exploring the Future: Russian Foresight
Valery S. Efimov and Alla V. Lapteva
Siberian Federal University

Keywords: Foresight; Future studies; methodology; Delphi method

Annotation: Fortunetelling and prophesy are examples of early forms, whereas forecast, strategy and futurological literature are examples of recent forms. In the last decades special institutes for futures studies have been set up, and despite differences in approach they all introduce practices of exploring the future. The ontological «platform» of Foresight determines its special place. «Horizon» is the key unit of Foresight ontology. «Horizon» is the frontier of future visions possibility, determined by existing ontolgies (scientifi c ontolgies, etc). The super-objective of Foresight is to reveal the variants of future that can appear due to shifts and changes in ontologies. This is the way you can «foresee» latent challenges, individual and social demands, and connected perspective technologies, which are not evident now, but can appear in 30-50.
Going beyond the frontier, established by existent ontology (ontologies) can be provided by special confi guration of knowledge belonging to different objective pictures of the world; acquired within the boundaries of different scientifi c subjects; communication of experts having various ontologically based standpoints (communication should give formation and presentation of ontologies); use of diverse techniques of exploring the future, creating various images; collective thinking focused on the problems (it is important to trigger its creative, futurological component).
The technology of Delphi-survey should be completed with Anti-Delphi. Anti-Delphi is the work with experts as bearers of various ontologies. Delphi is a method of obtaining a consensus of opinions and rejecting extreme and exotic opinions of a group of experts. While the Anti-Delphi method is aimed at obtaining and forming of «different ontologies» – «private consensus of opinions of a group of experts». Knowledge of other possible ontologies and currently unknown variants of the future, which can not be conceived and realized on the basis of the given ontologies, has to be the result of Anti-Delphi.
The technologically created transformation of «thinking about the future», expansion of the ontological fi eld, upon which the vision of the future is built, could become a distinguishing feature of «Russian Foresight», the basis of its novelty and competitiveness (in relation to other national styles of Foresight – European, Japanese etc.). There exists a precedent of «Russian Foresight» («The Childhood 2030»), the aim of which was to envisage possible changes to the social discourse and the construction of a new socio-cultural object. The results of the project «The Childhood 2030» have innovative elements: the theses of «a new discourse of the childhood», special design of «the road map».
In Russia the creation of an original and competitive foresight-research style as a powerful tool in search for directions and formats of «post-crisis development», and also for the formation of new institutions and new practice of exploring the future is crucially important for strengthening Russia’s position and the preservation of its effective development. Active engagement in this fi eld of competitiveness, and the reinforcement of its position in the sphere of strategising and Foresight, struggle for opportunities in «construction» and «privatisation» of the future are very important for Russia.

Valery S. Efi mov, Alla V. Lapteva. Practices of Exploring the Future: Russian Foresight / Journal of Siberian Federal University. Humanities & Social Sciences 1 (2009 3) // Krasnoyarsk, 2009